Throw it a hundred times
Working out the chance is the easy half. The hard half is what it promises you: nothing whatever about the next throw, and something quite definite about the thousandth. So take the long run.
1 in 6 = 0.167
- Throws
- 0
- Worst face is off by
- —
What to throw
Roll the dice
Ready to try some? Probability worksheets in the Data maker
Where it usually goes wrong
A chance is heard as a promise about the next throw. Six ones in a row makes a seven feel “due”, and it is not: the die has no memory. What 1 in 6 actually promises is about the long run, and the long run is much longer than anyone expects — ten throws will not show it and neither will thirty.
Try this
- Roll 12 and look at the worst face. It is usually a long way off its fair share.
- Keep rolling to a hundred, then to five hundred. The gaps close slowly, and never quite exactly.
- Clear the tally and do it again. A different run, the same shape of answer — that is what a probability is describing.
Where this goes next
Every poll, trial and safety statistic works this way, and the question “how many did they test?” is the same question as the one this tool answers.