Correlation and causation, step by step
Towns with more police officers report more crime.
The question
The faster you pedal, the sooner you arrive. What is the best explanation?
Try the cause both ways round
they move together
one direction works
First causes second
- Two things go up and down together: The faster you pedal, the sooner you arrive. Moving together is a CORRELATION — on its own it says nothing about what causes what.
- Could the second thing cause the first? No — so the arrow only goes one way.
- Speed is what shortens the journey, not arriving early.
How it works.
- 01
Two things go up and down together: The faster you pedal, the sooner you arrive. Moving together is a CORRELATION — on its own it says nothing about what causes what.
- 02
Could the second thing cause the first? No — so the arrow only goes one way.
- 03
Speed is what shortens the journey, not arriving early.