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Which is more likely? worksheets

Two shapes in one bag, and a question: which are you more likely to pick? These free printable worksheets turn comparing chances into comparing counts, and some bags come out equally likely. Five questions a page, with an answer key.

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Which is more likely?
Which is more likely? worksheet — Bags of 8 to 12 shapes, free printable with answer key

The answer key prints on a separate page.

What's on this sheet

A bag with 8 stars and 4 squares gives a star the better chance, and a child can see why by counting. That is the whole idea, and it is worth making explicit, because "more likely" does not mean the star is certain. A square could still come out, and it often will.

Why this sheet works

Some bags hold the same number of each shape, and then the right answer is the third choice, equally likely. Those are the ones to look at closely, since children tend to favor a shape they like or the one they noticed first. A bag with 4 stars and 4 circles gives neither one an edge, whichever one looks like more.

How this one works

Pick one without looking. Which are you more likely to get?

4 stars and 4 squares
equally likely
  1. Count what is there: 4 stars and 4 squares, 8 in all.
  2. There are the same number of each, so they are equally likely.

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